Arthur D. Little predicts future developments of automotive CO2

Despite the growingimportance of automotive CO₂ regulations, a uniform globalapproach to tackle the issue has not yet been developed. Countries have adopteddifferent regulatory policies and implementation procedures, resulting in ahigh degree of complexity in the global landscape. In its new report, “The Automotive CO₂ EmissionsChallenge,” global management consultancy Arthur D. Little(ADL) predicts the future development of automotive CO₂ up to2020, and explains what steps OEMs should take to overcome future challenges.

“Oil dependency and climate change are topics highly debated by governments andcommunities,” says FabrizioArena,Partner of ADL’s Automotive & Manufacturing Group. “As aconsequence, OEMs must define investments, control manufacturing costs andconstantly review their car portfolios to cope with worldwide futurechallenges.”

In this study, ADL considered a wide set of drivers to predict the futuredevelopment of automotive CO₂ regulations up to 2020. Followingquantitative analysis as well as qualitative interviews with industry experts,ADL predicts oil price will be the main driver in CO₂ regulation;coupled with other foreseeable drivers including climate change commitment.

On the basis of these findings, ADL predicts countries that are regulated up to2020 will not change their policies, given that they have prepared for a slightincrease in oil price. The only exceptions are China and India due to factorssuch as a booming population, increasing wealth per capita and a growing demandfor road transportation fuel.

“With more stringent andconverging CO₂ emissions standards in both advanced andemerging markets, OEMs will have to think about their CO₂ strategiesglobally,” addsArena.“Technology such as aerodynamic, light-weight designs and NEV technologies willbe more critical than ever in making the necessary improvements to reach therequirements.”

The full report isavailable at www.adl.com/CO2challenge